canadas housing crisis - janice leffler -

Solving Canada’s Housing Crisis Starts With a Reality Check

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First-Time Buyers Are Stuck Between “Too Small” or “Too Expensive”

A vibrant housing system needs to include options and opportunity across its spectrum.

In the Comox Valley, and in communities across Canada, there’s a growing number of young professionals with solid educations, reliable careers, and stable incomes who still cannot purchase their first home.

This challenge exists in virtually every local housing market.

Many of these Canadians want to buy. They understand they will likely need to make concessions along the way. That could mean compromising financially, rethinking location, or adjusting personal expectations about the type of home they can afford. Most are realistic about the fact that they may not get everything they want.

The problem is that, increasingly, they can’t find anything that truly works at all.

Realtors have a unique perspective on these challenges because they work directly with buyers navigating the market every day. In some communities, hopeful first-time buyers simply can’t find anything within reach financially. In others, the available options fail to meet their practical needs. In many cases, it’s both.

This is not a new issue. It is the ongoing result of a housing supply crisis Canada has been facing for years.

Building More Isn’t Enough

The response to low housing supply has understandably been focused on one solution: build more.

But reality is proving that building more “units” alone is not a lasting answer. The homes being built must actually align with the needs of the people expected to live in them.

Last year, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasted that 2025 would be a turning point for Canada’s resale market. The expectation was that lower interest rates and improving confidence would bring buyers back into the market after a prolonged slowdown.

Instead, economic uncertainty driven by tariff threats from the United States resulted in another sluggish year.

As Canada looks ahead, the urgency to increase housing supply remains critical. More homes do need to be built, and faster. However, the bigger conversation needs to shift toward what types of housing are actually being developed.

The Rise of Smaller Condominiums

Over the past two decades, small apartment-style condominiums have gradually replaced detached homes as the dominant form of new housing construction in many Canadian markets.

At the same time, these units have become progressively smaller.

For many buyers, especially young families or those planning long-term homeownership, these properties are not realistic forever homes. They may serve as temporary housing, but they often fail to provide flexibility for changing life circumstances.

That leaves many first-time buyers trapped between two impossible choices:

  • Buy something too small
  • Or stretch financially for something too expensive

Neither option creates a healthy or sustainable housing market.

A vibrant housing system should offer attainable choices that people genuinely want to move into and grow within.

Canada’s Missing Middle Problem

For years, housing experts and planners have discussed the concept of the “missing middle.”

The term was introduced more than 15 years ago, yet Canada’s housing inventory still lacks enough of these practical, attainable housing types.

Missing middle housing includes options such as:

  • Semi-detached homes
  • Townhomes
  • Duplexes
  • Larger family-oriented condominiums

These properties often occupy smaller land footprints than detached homes while remaining more functional and attainable than many condominium units currently being built.

They also create flexibility within the housing system itself.

For first-time buyers, missing middle housing can provide an achievable entry point into homeownership. For growing families, it offers more livable space without requiring a detached home. For seniors looking to downsize, it creates alternatives that still feel comfortable and functional.

Increasing these types of housing options helps improve supply while also supporting long-term community stability.

Housing Needs More Than Short-Term Thinking

Canada’s current approach to housing development has become heavily focused on completions and profitability.

But simply maximizing unit counts without considering livability creates long-term problems.

By addressing the missing middle, Canada has an opportunity to shift away from building solely for short-term financial performance and instead build communities that prioritize long-term needs, flexibility, vibrancy, and choice.

As Prime Minister Mark Carney stated at the 2026 World Economic Forum:

“Nostalgia is not a strategy.”

That statement applies to housing just as much as it does to economics or politics.

Many Canadians understandably look back at earlier generations of housing affordability with frustration. But solving today’s housing crisis requires more than longing for what once existed.

It requires coordinated action.

A Shared Responsibility

Governments, industry leaders, real estate professionals, non-profit organizations, and community housing providers all have a role to play in solving Canada’s housing challenges.

Real progress will come from aligning policy, development, infrastructure, and community planning around the actual needs of Canadians today.

This is not about nostalgia or hindsight.

It is about confronting current realities honestly and taking meaningful action on an issue that affects Canadians at one of the most personal levels possible: the ability to build a stable home and future.

Get in touch with me today to learn more about buying and selling in the Comox Valley!

comox interest rate hikes

Effect of Latest Interest Rate Hike: Housing market activity will soften, but home prices are not likely to go down

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Canadians continue to grapple with the increased cost of living. The Bank
of Canada’s latest hike to interest rates on July 12 will add more pressure to
variable rate mortgage holders. It will also make it more difficult for those
looking to qualify for lending.

Buyers who have secured a rate hold are anxious to make a purchase
before it expires.

Some sellers have hit the pause button on listing their
homes until economic conditions stabilize. This will further contribute to a
lack of available inventory. Additional demand pressures will ensure that
home prices remain stable through an expected decline in sales activity in
the coming months.

“The Canadian real estate market has been in a steady state of recovery
since the start of the year. While these additional interest rate hikes, and
those potentially to come, will likely put a damper on activity and sales
volumes, demand for housing remains very strong,” said Phil Soper,
president and CEO of Royal LePage. ”We expect the rate of appreciation to
moderate through the second half of 2023, causing home prices to level
off or increase marginally.”

What do the experts say?

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada
will increase 8.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same
quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect
strong activity and price appreciation in the first half of the year.

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released in mid July,
the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased modestly by 0.7%
year-over-year to $809,200 in the second quarter of 2023. The indication
here is that nationally, the real estate market is close to the point where it
will have recovered fully from 2022’s post-pandemic market correction.

Aggregate price of a home in Canada rose 4.0% in Q2

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the aggregate price of a home in Canada
rose 4.0% in Q2. This was the second consecutive quarter to show
positive growth. As a result of the Bank of Canada’s aggressive interest
rate hike campaign, there has been a decline in prices over the last year.
Interest rates began rising in March of 2022.

“The Bank of Canada’s prolonged series of interest rate hikes has changed
where and how people live. It has pushed some buyer hopefuls to choose
less expensive housing types or neighbourhoods. Others have chosen to
relocate to more affordable markets across their province or across the
country.

And, some buyers have been pushed to the sidelines indefinitely,”
Soper continued. “Economic uncertainty has caused some potential
sellers to reevaluate their plans as well. The worry that they will be unable
to find the move-up home they need in today’s tight market is a major concern.

Further, there are those who secured fixed-rate mortgages at
generational lows of two percent or even less, who are understandably
reluctant to wade back into a market with substantially higher borrowing
costs. Fewer sellers mean fewer listings, which adds further pressure to
our chronic shortage of inventory. Access to affordable housing in Canada
will continue to be a major social issue.”

Second quarter press release highlights:

● Aggregate price of a home in Canada in Q2 2023 sits at just 5.6%
below the peak reached in Q1 of last year
● 94% of regions in the report posted quarterly aggregate home price
appreciation
● Chronic shortage of housing supply, due in part to sellers’ hesitancy
to list, continues to put upward pressure on home prices
● Royal LePage urges officials to quickly increase support for more
development, including affordable, purpose-built rental buildings

janice leffler comox valley real estate market update 2020

Comox Valley Real Estate Market Update – 2020

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2020: The year of COVID-19

The year began as many do with a slow start, picking up as February and March roll around. This was a different year though, as we came to realize. COVID-19 reared it’s head and by mid-March businesses and employees were becoming affected in ways no one expected. As March, April and May progressed, real estate was almost at a standstill. Then came June and what a change. The flood gates opened! We all know what happened next. Lots of buyers, not as many sellers, more than one offer at a time, waiting to entertain offers because there was so much interest.

This carried on into 2021 and, if it is possible, became increasingly evident. There were fewer listings than we had ever seen and people wanted to move closer to relatives, out of the city, to lower priced markets and so on.

—

Important information about Comox Valley real estate:

The following information is from end-of-year 2020 statistics and supports the overall decline in sales numbers as a result of fewer people selling and, therefore less available to purchase. It also reflects a general reduction in activity due to government strategies aimed at cooling the real estate market – from the B-20 stress test for financing, foreign buyer’s tax which is not applicable in this area yet but does have some impact, constant threats of increased interest rates along with other measures.

  • This past year in real estate (2020) ended much as it began with more buyers than sellers. It is very different from anything I remember over the life of my 33-year real estate career. We saw fewer listings, taking less time to sell, more people wanting to buy, multiple offers on most properties, and rising prices.
  • The average price of single-family homes was on the rise in 2019 and that trend continued throughout 2020, beginning at about $580,000 in January and finishing out the year at $632,000. Total number of single-family sales in all price ranges was down from just 850 to 778 between 2019 and 2020.
  • By far the most active price ranges for homes are between $450,000 and $800,000, accounting for 78% of the total market with $400,000 to $450,000 and $800,000 to $1,000,000 encompassing another 17% of the sales;

Infill, subdivision, and new construction in Courtenay

  • As usual, the majority of all single-family sales in our area occur in Comox, but there has been a shift with the City of Courtenay now moving ahead of East Courtenay (which has historically been second to Comox). Sales in Comox, at just over 26% of the total market, amounted to 204 in total for the year, up from a 20% market share in 2019. With infill, subdivision, and new construction in Courtenay City, sales sat at 22% with 172 of total area sales and East Courtenay moving down slightly from 2019 at 16.9% or 132 sales.
  • Due to new homes being built and more lots coming on the market in Cumberland, it has picked up 1% of that market change now sitting at just under 9% of the total number of sales with 70 in 2020. Also of interest is that Cumberland prices are now in line with the rest of the municipalities in the Comox Valley as far as sale prices with the majority of them between $450,000 and $700,000. With home sales in Crown Isle at 72 in 2020, that is double what they were in 2019 and it looks like what has happened there is that all other areas have caught up to Crown Isle pricing where the bulk of the market was between $600,000 and $900,000  There is a wide range of sales numbers and prices in all other areas that has, interestingly, decreased from the previous year to almost 15% of the local sales market from 30% in 2019. It appears that buyers preferred to live in town in 2020 by quite a wide margin which would account for the bigger numbers in urban areas.

Rural areas in Comox Valley Real Estate

  • In the rural areas – outside Courtenay, Comox, and Cumberland – there was quite a change last year with the number of sales on the Comox Peninsula and Courtenay North, Courtenay South, Courtenay West, and Union Bay/Fanny Bay tallying just half the sales of the previous year. Two other notable mentions are Merville/Black Creek and Mt. Washington. In the case of Merville/Black Creek, sales dropped last year by more than 30% and Mt. Washington sales figures increased by over 40%.
  • Interestingly in 2019, 66% of what was listed was sold, and in 2020 that increased to 88% which is similar to the 2017 market and still much better than other previous years. At this moment it is very much a sellers’ market because of low inventory and huge demand – in part because of COVID-19, it seems.
  • As always, buyers are particular about what they will buy and what they are prepared to pay for it, but they will pay based on their experience which has elevated sales prices much to some buyers’ consternation.

Apartments and Condos in Comox Valley

  • The Comox Valley condominium market remains strong with most listings being apartment-style, but the best prices realized are for patio or townhomes. Of note is that there were almost as many patio and townhome sales in 2020 as in 2019 and of apartment-style condos too, along with increased prices. All are being built even though the time from inception to realization is still of concern to developers and there are more rental apartments under construction now too. Townhouse sales have been good and they, along with the single-family market, have seen considerable increases in sale prices. They continue to be a preference for certain buyers because of the built-in maintenance and affordability while providing good living space in comparison to the single-family home price, age, and size.
  • The lot market has picked up with some subdivisions taking place in Courtenay, Cumberland, and Crown Isle primarily. While there were 175 active listings, up only a little from 163 in 2019, there were twice the sales over the past year with the average price at about $334,000. The lack of affordable development property is a factor and has led to the majority of subdivisions being bought up by builders. The increase in initial price, infrastructure, and building costs has pushed up the cost of new construction as well.
  • To summarize, the most active price ranges up to the end of December are now $450,000 to $800,000. There were a significant number of people, 604 or almost 78% of total sales, who sold their homes between $450,000 and $800,000, and only 85 sales over $800,000. That includes less sales than in 2019 over $1M down from 41 to 26.